Price of Green Progress: Did UK Overestimate EV Demand

The UK’s move to slow its electric vehicle transition appears to be a direct consequence of carmakers overestimating consumer demand for EVs. The industry successfully argued that this miscalculation made the government’s green sales targets impossible to meet sustainably.
According to the manufacturers’ lobbying submissions, the gap between their forecasts and actual sales forced them to implement deep price cuts. While this was a boon for early adopters, the industry claimed the resulting financial losses were jeopardising future UK investment.
This narrative convinced the government to add “flexibilities” to the ZEV mandate, essentially acknowledging that the market was not as mature as policymakers had hoped. The changes are designed to give the market more time to develop and for consumer appetite to catch up with the supply of electric cars.
However, critics argue that demand is not static and that the mandate itself was a tool to stimulate it by increasing vehicle availability and competition. By easing the rules, they contend, the government is not responding to the market but is actively slowing its development.