A Glimpse of the Old Order: Russia to Observe START Caps for a Year

Offering a brief glimpse of the old global security order, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country will voluntarily observe the nuclear caps of the expired New START treaty for one year. The move is an attempt to maintain a degree of predictability in a world without a major arms control pact.
Putin explained the decision as a necessary measure for a “turbulent period.” He said that maintaining the status quo established by the treaty—limiting deployed warheads to 1,550—was a justified step to prevent an uncontrolled arms race and ensure stability.
This return to the old order’s rules is conditional. Putin made it clear that he expects the United States to play by them as well. He stated that Russia’s policy is only “viable” if the U.S. “acts in a similar manner,” directly linking his country’s restraint to America’s.
The Russian leader also suggested that this glimpse of the past could inform the future. He expressed hope that this period of mutual restraint could help build the trust required to restart a “substantive strategic dialogue” and perhaps forge a new security order.
For twelve months, the rules of the now-defunct New START treaty will guide Russia’s nuclear posture. Whether this becomes a permanent feature or a historical anomaly will depend on the strategic choices made in Washington.